Bitcoin Consolidates Near $95K as Technical Analysts Map Divergent Price Targets for 2026

Short-Term Technical Setup Points to Six-Figure Breakout

Bitcoin's price consolidated around $95,000 in early January, trading 9.5% above its opening level of $87,500 on January 1 ^[1]. Technical analysts have identified an ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart, with a measured target of $113,200 if the cryptocurrency can overcome critical resistance levels ^[1].

The immediate challenge for bulls lies between $96,000 and $99,500, where the 100-day and 200-day exponential moving averages create a major resistance zone ^[1]. According to Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish, Bitcoin is approaching a key inflection point at $98,000, which represents the short-term holder cost basis ^[1].

"Reclaiming the STH cost basis would signal that recent buyers are back in profit, typically a prerequisite for momentum to re-accelerate," Beamish noted ^[1].

MN Capital Founder Michael van de Poppe emphasized that as long as the BTC/USD pair maintains levels above the 21-day moving average at $91,200, "the trend is up," and breaking $100,000 becomes a matter of timing rather than probability ^[1].

Multi-Year Trendline Support Remains Intact

Analyst Mags identified Bitcoin bouncing from a multi-year trendline support that has held since March 2023 ^[1]. "Each time the price has bounced from this support, we have witnessed a strong run-up," Mags explained ^[1]. Historical precedent shows that when Bitcoin last bounced from this trendline in October 2023, it rallied 172% to reach its previous all-time high of $73,800 on March 14, 2024 ^[1].

Technical indicators suggest room for further upside, with the relative strength index climbing to 64 on Friday from oversold conditions in mid-November ^[1]. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is "trading strong but is pretty far from being overbought in the short term," adding that "there's definitely a good amount of room to move higher for now" ^[1].

2025's Sideways Action May Give Way to 2026 Rally

While 2025 began with significant optimism following the halving, ETF approvals, and political changes, the year failed to deliver the anticipated fourth-quarter blow-off top ^[2]. Instead, Bitcoin hit its all-time high on October 6 before sliding back to $80,000, trapped in a range between $84,000 and $95,000 for much of the year ^[2].

Analyst James Check and others have observed that long-term holders showed signs of exhaustion, with approximately 67% of the Realized Cap invested above $95,000 on November 1 declining to 47% over the subsequent two months ^[2]. Over the last 30 days, around 80% of coins that transacted came from higher prices, indicating capitulation among weak hands ^[2].

Looking ahead to 2026, several factors could support a more substantial rally. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, currently at 47.9, is projected to cross above 50 in the second quarter as new policies take effect ^[2]. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin performs strongly when this manufacturing indicator signals expansion rather than contraction.

Liquidity Cycle Could Drive Extended Rally

The US government faces approximately $9 trillion in maturing debt during 2026, with an additional $5-10 trillion due globally ^[2]. This massive liquidity requirement, combined with projected military spending increases to $1.5 trillion, creates conditions that historically have proven favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin ^[2].

Samuel Benner's 19th-century forecasting chart, which maps long-term economic cycles, categorizes 2026 as a "B" year characterized by "Good Times, High Prices and the time to sell Stocks and values of all kinds" ^[2]. Previous years in this category include 2016, 2007, 1999, and 1989 ^[2].

Based on liquidity expansion models, some analysts project Bitcoin could reach $250,000, with more aggressive scenarios pointing toward a range between $210,000 and $600,000 ^[2]. The anticipated peak may not arrive until late 2026 or mid-2027, approximately 12-18 months after the liquidity expansion enters its "mania" phase ^[2].