Bitcoin Crash to $75,000: When Even MicroStrategy Slips Into the Red

Bitcoin Crash to $75,000: When Even MicroStrategy Slips Into the Red

The weekend crash in Bitcoin's price to a low of $75,644 marks not only a technical breakdown but also a psychological turning point: For the first time since beginning its massive accumulation strategy, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin position slipped into the red. With an average cost basis of $76,037 per Bitcoin and more than 700,000 BTC in its treasury, the company became an unwitting barometer for market sentiment. What appears at first glance to be a short-term market correction reveals, upon closer examination, profound shifts in market structure—and raises questions about future developments.

The Facts

Bitcoin lost over 7 percent of its value within a few hours over the weekend, falling from a 24-hour high of $84,356 to a low of $75,644 ^[3]. This broke through the psychologically important $80,000 level for the first time since April 2025—a level last reached during US President Donald Trump's initial tariff threats ^[1]. At the time of reporting, the price stabilized around $77,825, with daily trading volume swelling to $75 billion ^[3].

Derivatives markets experienced a veritable liquidation wave: Within just four hours, positions worth $1.87 billion were force-liquidated, with long positions accounting for approximately $1.79 billion of the total ^[1]. The situation was particularly dramatic for Ethereum, where $850 million alone was liquidated. Nearly half of these liquidations occurred on the perpetual trading platform Hyperliquid, where reports on X circulated from traders with eight-figure position sizes who were either liquidated or forced to close their positions ^[1].

Open Interest—an indicator of market interest in an asset—declined by 8.3 percent for Bitcoin within 24 hours, suggesting general investor caution ^[1]. Particularly significant: Bitcoin's price fell below the so-called "True Market Mean" at $80,700, representing the aggregated cost basis for the currently active Bitcoin supply ^[2]. Analyst On-Chain College commented: "Bitcoin is now BELOW the True Market Mean ($80,700) for the first time since October 2023 when the price was at $29,000. Simply put: This is not good for Bitcoin's short to medium-term price action" ^[2].

MicroStrategy, the company with the largest Bitcoin treasury of all, saw its position slip into the red for the first time since beginning its accumulation strategy. With over 700,000 BTC and an average price of $76,037 per Bitcoin, the company was directly affected by the price decline ^[2]. MicroStrategy's stock price stood at $143—a decline of nearly 70 percent from its local peak of $455 in July of the previous year ^[2]. Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, laconically commented on the situation on X: "₿uilt for the Long Run" ^[1].

The concrete triggers for the selloff remain largely unclear. There are isolated speculations on X about coordinated selling, but without substantiated evidence ^[1]. Possible external factors cited include increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran recently placed its armed forces on "full defensive and combat readiness" while the US assembled warships off the coast ^[1]. Additionally, the US government entered a partial shutdown after Congress failed to reach agreement on a complete budget package ^[3].

Analysis & Context

The current price collapse differs in several respects from typical corrections. The speed of the crash and the massive liquidations point to a classic deleveraging event—a forced position reduction through margin calls, not organic profit-taking. Particularly revealing is the 8.3 percent decline in Open Interest: This signals that speculative capital is leaving the market and traders are reducing their leveraged positions. Historically, such phases often lead to healthier market structures as excessive leverage is washed out.

The break below the True Market Mean at $80,700 is particularly relevant from an on-chain analytical perspective. This level represents the average cost basis of all active Bitcoin holders and historically functions as a strong magnet point. When price falls below it, more holders are at a loss, which can create psychological selling pressure. Interestingly, the data simultaneously shows an increase in new Bitcoin addresses to the highest level in two months ^[3]—an indication that new buyers view the lower prices as an entry opportunity. This divergence between selling pressure on leveraged positions and accumulating spot interest is typical of market bottoms.

The situation at MicroStrategy deserves special attention. The company has positioned itself as an institutional pioneer and brought its cost basis to $76,037 through continuous purchases. While this position now being in the red is technically insignificant for a long-term oriented treasury company, it sends a signal to other corporates considering similar strategies. Saylor's response "Built for the Long Run" underscores the long-term orientation, but such drawdowns could be discouraging for potential imitators. The 70 percent correction in MSTR stock from its peak also shows how heavily the market values—and punishes—the leverage component of MicroStrategy's strategy.

In the medium term, the $74,500 level from April 2025 and the psychological $70,000 zone are likely to serve as the next support areas. The technical structure has deteriorated significantly through the break of the uptrend line valid since December and the 50-day EMA at $90,000 ^[3]. A recapture of the $82,000 to $84,000 zone would be necessary to neutralize the bearish structure. Notably, despite the sharp decline, Bitcoin performed better than gold, which corrected more strongly during the same period ^[3]—an indication of relative strength despite volatility.

Conclusion

• The Bitcoin crash below $76,000 marks a structural break of important technical and psychological supports, particularly the True Market Mean at $80,700—historically a critical level for medium-term trend developments.

• The liquidation wave of $1.87 billion in four hours and the 8.3 percent decline in Open Interest demonstrate a classic deleveraging event that flushes excessive leveraged positions from the market and potentially creates a healthier foundation for future upward movements.

• MicroStrategy's position in the red is psychologically significant and could deter other companies from similar treasury strategies, even though Saylor's "Long Run" strategy tolerates short-term losses from an accounting perspective.

• The simultaneous increase in new Bitcoin addresses to two-month highs suggests accumulating spot interest—a typical divergence at market bottoms between leveraged selling pressure and long-term buying interest.

• While geopolitical tensions and the US government shutdown provide narrative explanations, the technical market structure with thin liquidity and high leverage was the primary accelerator of the crash—external factors served more as catalysts.