Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Pressure as Macro Analyst Gromen Signals Caution Amid Altcoin Volatility

Gromen Fades Bitcoin Despite Bullish Macro Outlook

Global macro analyst Luke Gromen, founder of FFTT (Forest For The Trees), is taking a cautious stance on Bitcoin in the short term despite maintaining his broader thesis on currency debasement ^[1]. Gromen, who established his macro research firm in early 2014, sees a possible move toward the $40,000 range for Bitcoin in 2026 ^[1].

Gromen's use of the term "debasement" refers to governments managing heavy debt burdens by allowing inflation to rise and currency values to decline, effectively reducing the real weight of their obligations over time ^[1]. While he still believes governments will rely on inflation and weaker currencies to manage their debt loads, he is more cautious on Bitcoin specifically ^[1].

Technical Red Flags Emerge for Bitcoin

Gromen's main concerns center on three key indicators: Bitcoin lagging behind gold performance, damage to key moving averages, and "quantum risk" headlines weighing on market sentiment ^[1]. For investors looking to track similar signals, Gromen suggests monitoring the BTC-to-gold ratio, trend filters, and ETF flows on a weekly basis ^[1].

Current technical analysis shows Bitcoin turned down from the 50-day simple moving average at $90,525, indicating continued bearish pressure at higher levels ^[2]. The cryptocurrency faces solid support at $84,000, with analysts warning that a break below this level could push prices down to $80,600 and potentially as low as $74,508 ^[2].

A close above $90,600 would represent the first sign of strength for Bitcoin bulls, potentially enabling a rally to the overhead resistance of $94,589 ^[2].

Ethereum Shows Signs of Recovery

Ethereum has broken above the $3,000 level in what analysts describe as a relief rally ^[3]. The second-largest cryptocurrency is currently trading within a consolidation zone between $3,400 resistance and $2,650 support ^[3].

Technical indicators suggest a potential bullish reversal, with the Relative Strength Index pushing above the 50-midline level to 51.60 ^[3]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence also supports this outlook, with the blue MACD line crossing above the orange signal line and green bars forming above the neutral line, signaling positive momentum ^[3].

If Ethereum maintains its rally above $3,000 and closes above the 50-day SMA at $3,041, the next key resistance target sits at $3,299 within the 0.236 Fibonacci area ^[3]. A sustained rally could push Ethereum toward the previous supply zone at $3,709 ^[3].

Mixed Signals Across Major Altcoins

XRP is attempting recovery but faces selling pressure at the 20-day exponential moving average of $1.92 ^[2]. A close below $1.61 could open the doors for a retest of the October 10 low of $1.25 ^[2].

Solana rose above the 20-day EMA at $126 on Monday but failed to sustain higher levels, with sellers attempting to push the price below $116 ^[2]. A positive divergence on the RSI provides a minor advantage for bulls, who need to push above the 50-day SMA at $133 to gain control ^[2].

Dogecoin has held the $0.12 support level and is working to push back above the breakdown level of $0.13 ^[2]. The positive divergence on the RSI suggests selling pressure is reducing, with a potential rally to $0.16 if the price rises above the moving averages ^[2].

Cardano's recovery has reached the 20-day EMA at $0.38, a crucial near-term level ^[2]. The positive divergence on the RSI suggests bears are losing their grip, with a close above the 20-day EMA potentially propelling the price to the 50-day SMA at $0.42 ^[2].