Bitcoin in Holding Pattern: US Court Decision on Trump Tariffs to Determine Market Direction

The crypto market finds itself in a waiting phase. Bitcoin is trading at $91,000 with a slight increase of one percent, while total market capitalization stands at $1.9 trillion ^[1]. Altcoins are also recording moderate gains between 0.5 and 2 percent.

The reason for the restraint: The U.S. Supreme Court is issuing a decision today on the legality of emergency tariffs imposed by Donald Trump in 2025 ^[1]. The consequences could be significant. If the tariffs are overturned, companies and importers would receive refunds between $133 and $600 billion – the largest one-time liquidity injection in U.S. history ^[1].

Such a capital influx would benefit risk assets like cryptocurrencies, but would strain the federal budget. According to the prediction platform Polymarket, there is a 77 percent probability of a ruling against the Trump administration ^[1].

Despite positioned Bitcoin futures worth approximately $60 billion, expected price fluctuations remain unusually low ^[1]. This suggests that market participants are anticipating a significant move – however, the direction remains uncertain.