Bitcoin Infrastructure Matures as Epoch Report Declares Four-Year Cycle Dead and Ledger Eyes $4 Billion IPO

Traditional Market Patterns Give Way to Gradual Growth

Bitcoin's infrastructure landscape is experiencing significant transformation as institutional adoption deepens and market dynamics shift away from historical patterns, according to a major new analysis released alongside news of corporate expansion in the sector.

Epoch Ventures, a venture firm specializing in Bitcoin infrastructure, released its second annual ecosystem report on January 21, 2026, delivering a 186-page analysis that boldly declares the death of Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle ^[1]. The report forecasts Bitcoin will reach at least $150,000 by year-end, driven by institutional inflows and decoupling from equities ^[1].

"We believe cycle theory is a relic of the past, and the cycles themselves probably never existed," the report states, adding that "Bitcoin is boring and growing gradually now" ^[1]. This assessment comes despite Bitcoin closing 2025 at $87,500, marking a 6 percent annual decline but an 84 percent four-year gain that ranks in the bottom 3 percent historically ^[1].

Eric Yakes, a CFA charterholder and managing partner at Epoch Ventures who authored the influential book "The 7th Property: Bitcoin and the Monetary Revolution," brings over a decade of finance expertise to the analysis ^[1]. The report argues that gradual growth will "drive a 'gradually, then suddenly' moment" rather than the dramatic boom-bust cycles previously observed ^[1].

Corporate Adoption Reaches New Heights

Corporate treasury adoption of Bitcoin accelerated dramatically in 2025, with more companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets than in any previous year ^[1]. Public company Bitcoin holdings increased 82 percent year-over-year to 1.08 million BTC, while the number of public companies holding Bitcoin grew from 69 to over 191 throughout 2025 ^[1].

Corporations now own at least 6.4 percent of total Bitcoin supply, split between 5.1 percent held by public companies and 1.3 percent by private companies ^[1]. Treasury companies acquired roughly 486,000 BTC during 2025, equal to 2.3 percent of the entire Bitcoin supply ^[1].

Epoch predicts that Japan's Metaplanet will post the highest multiple on net asset value among all treasury companies with market capitalizations above $1 billion ^[1]. The firm also anticipates that an activist investor or rival company will force the liquidation of one underperforming treasury firm to capture the discount between its share price and the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings ^[1].

Ledger Targets $4 Billion Valuation in NYSE Debut

In a significant development for Bitcoin infrastructure companies, French hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger is preparing for an initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange, according to a Financial Times report citing sources familiar with the matter ^[2]. The company is working with Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, and Barclays on the listing ^[2].

Ledger is targeting a valuation exceeding $4 billion, nearly triple the approximately $1.5 billion valuation from its 2023 financing round ^[2]. According to CEO Pascal Gauthier, the company's revenues now reach into the hundreds of millions of dollars ^[2]. Ironically, increasing hacker attacks in the crypto sector are driving users to more securely store their digital assets, boosting demand for hardware wallets ^[2].

However, Ledger faces scrutiny due to past security incidents, including a recent data leak at an external payment service provider that exposed customer data, as well as incidents in 2020 and 2023 where either customer data or funds were endangered by hacks ^[2].

The timing comes as crypto custody provider BitGo made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange, though crypto-related stocks have recently struggled with significant losses ^[2]. Exchange platform Kraken also plans to go public this year after raising $500 million at a $15 billion valuation ^[2].

Market Sentiment and Regulatory Outlook

The Epoch report's analysis of 356,423 data points from 653 sources reveals a fractured sentiment landscape, with "Bitcoin is dead" narratives concluded ^[1]. Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) remains stable at 12-18 percent, though topics rotate, with crime and legal themes up 277 percent while environmental concerns declined 41 percent ^[1].

A 125-point perception gap exists between conference attendees, who show +90 positive sentiment, and tech media at -35 ^[1]. UK outlets demonstrate 56-64 percent negativity, two to three times international averages ^[1].

On regulation, Epoch predicts the proposed Clarity Act will not pass Congress in 2026, though expects its main ideas on asset taxonomy and regulatory jurisdiction to advance through SEC rulemaking or guidance instead ^[1]. The firm also forecasts Republican losses in midterm elections could trigger new regulatory pressure focused on consumer protection measures ^[1].