Bitcoin Market Analysis: Analysts Divided on Bear Market Calls as Key Indicators Flash Mixed Signals

Growing Debate Over Bitcoin's Market Trajectory

The cryptocurrency market is witnessing an intensifying debate over Bitcoin's current phase, with prominent analysts offering diverging views on whether the leading digital asset has entered a bear market.

"There is no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market," Markus Thielen from 10x Research stated, characterizing the current situation as "a bear market reversal rally" ^[1]. However, Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of crypto asset fund manager Apollo Capital, offered a more nuanced perspective, acknowledging that while buying pressure from digital asset treasuries seen in the first half of the year has subsided, "it doesn't mean we are in a bear market" ^[1].

Short-Term Technical Outlook

Despite bearish sentiment, some technical analysts are identifying potential relief for Bitcoin bulls. Crypto analyst "Skew" noted on Thursday that conditions are "looking a lot more constructive here for the bulls" from a four-hour chart perspective, adding that "momentum is toward the upside if buyers and the market can muster strength from here" ^[1].

The analyst identified key resistance levels, warning that falling below $88,000 "would be a sign of weakness and failed momentum to drive higher," with the critical battleground area between $90,000 and $92,000 representing "an initial area for the market to fight over structural trend" ^[1].

Softening Price Predictions

Prominent Bitcoin bull Tom Lee has seemingly tempered his bullish outlook, easing off his previous prediction of $250,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2025 ^[2]. The BitMine chair pointed to Bitcoin's historical pattern of concentrating gains within a narrow trading window, noting that the asset typically "makes its move" in just 10 days annually ^[2].

In 2024, Bitcoin's strongest 10 days delivered a combined return of 52%, while the remaining 355 days generated an average return of -15% ^[2], highlighting the asset's tendency for compressed volatility and sudden price movements.

Path to Recovery: Four Key Factors

Analysts have identified several catalysts that could drive Bitcoin back toward its previous all-time high of $112,000, with most scenarios pointing toward the first half of 2026 ^[3].

The potential changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve represents a significant factor. US Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and President Donald Trump has indicated preference for a candidate favoring less restrictive monetary policy ^[3]. Additionally, Bloomberg reported that US regulators have finalized rules lowering capital requirements for major banks by January 1, 2026 ^[3].

Within the Bitcoin ecosystem, the MSCI Index's consultation on whether to exclude companies primarily focused on accumulating digital assets could impact market dynamics, with a final decision expected on January 15 ^[3]. Passive funds linked to Strategy (MSTR) represent nearly $9 billion in market exposure ^[3].

Mining Data Signals Potential Bottom

Bitcoin mining data may be providing a contrarian signal for a potential rally. Currently, Bitcoin miners are operating with a slim 4.9% margin at a BTC price of $87,979, representing one of the lowest readings of the cycle ^[4]. Historically, thin margins have served as a stabilizing force, as inefficient miners exit the network, difficulty adjusts, and supply pressure diminishes ^[4].

Additionally, Bitcoin's Dynamic Range Network Value to Transaction (NVT) has fallen below its NVT Low value of 194, entering what analysts describe as the network's "value zone" ^[4]. This condition typically emerges late in corrections and has historically signaled that the market is undervaluing underlying network activity ^[4].

As Bitcoin continues trading in the high $80,000 range, market participants await clearer directional signals amid mixed technical and fundamental indicators.