Bitcoin Market Shows Mixed Signals as Analysts Debate End of Traditional Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin Faces Short-Term Technical Pressure

Bitcoin is experiencing selling pressure at higher levels as buyers pushed BTC back above the uptrend line on Wednesday, though the long wick on the candlestick shows resistance ^[1]. Bears are attempting to pull the Bitcoin price below the $84,000 support level, which could lead to a retest of the crucial $80,600 level ^[1]. Buyers are expected to fiercely defend the zone between $80,600 and $73,777 ^[1].

Onchain Metrics Signal Market Shift

João Wedson, founder of onchain analytics firm Alphractal, pointed to the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal as a metric signaling potential changes in Bitcoin's bull market ^[2]. Historically, SOPR has marked market turning points by tracking shifts between profit-taking and loss-driven selling ^[2].

In bull markets, SOPR stayed above 1 as coins were sold at a profit, often preceding local tops ^[2]. Near market bottoms, it fell toward or below 1, signaling a realization of loss ^[2]. As of December, SOPR was trending lower, showing BTC was being spent at smaller profits or at a loss, supporting a bearish narrative based on the four-year cycle ^[2].

Major Firms Challenge Traditional Cycle Theory

Despite bearish technical indicators, multiple market observers noted that Bitcoin's four-year cycle may no longer be applicable ^[2]. On Monday, US-based Grayscale Investments predicted that BTC's price would reach a new record high in the first half of 2026, citing growing macro demand due to currency debasement and a supportive regulatory environment in the US ^[2].

Fidelity shared a similar bullish outlook in its 2026 crypto outlook report ^[2]. The investment firm discussed the odds of Bitcoin entering a "supercycle," analogous to commodity supercycles in the 2000s that spanned nearly a decade ^[2]. Central to this view is what Chris Kuiper, Fidelity Digital Assets' vice president of research, called an "entirely new cohort and class of investors," which could support a longer market expansion than in past cycles ^[2].

Altcoin Markets Show Weakness

Beyond Bitcoin, major altcoins are experiencing downward pressure. Ether rebounded off the uptrend line on Tuesday but stalled at the 20-day EMA of $3,066 on Wednesday ^[1]. Bears are attempting to pull the Ether price below the uptrend line, which could lead to a drop to $2,716 and then $2,623 ^[1].

XRP has been sliding toward the support line of the descending channel pattern, indicating negative sentiment ^[1]. Solana's downsloping 20-day EMA of $133 and RSI below 39 signal that bears are in control, with potential downside to $110 and then $95 if the support line breaks ^[1].

Dogecoin fell below the $0.13 support on Monday, signaling the resumption of the downtrend ^[1]. However, a minor advantage for bulls is that the RSI is forming a positive divergence, suggesting selling pressure is reducing ^[1]. Cardano is struggling to bounce off the $0.37 support, indicating a lack of aggressive buying, with potential downside to $0.32 and then $0.27 if support breaks ^[1].

The divergence between short-term technical indicators and long-term institutional predictions highlights the uncertainty in current cryptocurrency markets as traditional cycle patterns are being challenged by evolving market dynamics.