Bitcoin Market Shows Recovery Signs as Whale Activity Intensifies Amid Mixed Technical Outlook

Price Recovery Follows Sharp Correction

Bitcoin has recovered to approximately $90,000 after dropping to seven-month lows below $80,000 last week, gaining over 4% in daily trading^[2]. The cryptocurrency is now testing critical resistance levels that could determine whether the recent selloff marks a temporary correction or the beginning of a prolonged bear market.

Spot market conditions are showing signs of improvement, with taker cumulative volume delta (CVD) returning to neutral from negative territory. "That's a significant step forward!" noted J.A. Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant^[3]. The platform's indicator covering retail investor activity on Bitcoin futures is now replicating "past market turning points" by flipping green^[3].

Technical Analysis Points to Potential Rally

Veteran trader Alessio Rastani presents a contrarian view to widespread bearish sentiment, arguing that current market conditions suggest a 75% probability of a short-term rally based on historical patterns^[1]. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Rastani explained that the recent drop may represent a historically recurring setup that has preceded strong rallies approximately three-quarters of the time.

Rastani points to extreme sentiment indicators, oversold technical conditions, and correlation with stock markets as factors supporting potential upside continuation^[1]. Notably, he argues that Bitcoin has not formed a "blow-off top" — a characteristic feature of previous market peaks — suggesting the recent all-time high may not represent the cycle's terminal top^[1].

Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe identified the 2025 yearly opening level above $93,000 as crucial resistance. "If this level breaks, Bitcoin is back up to $100K," van de Poppe stated, adding that he expects consolidation before any breakthrough^[3]. Trader Daan Crypto Trades highlighted $97,000-$98,000 as a significant liquidity pocket and horizontal price level to watch^[3].

Whale Activity Raises Concerns

Despite bullish technical signals, on-chain data reveals intensifying activity from large holders that could pressure prices lower. Bitcoin exchange inflows reached approximately 9,000 BTC on November 21, a multi-month high, with nearly 45% originating from deposits of 100 Bitcoin or more — a clear indication of whale selling activity^[2].

The average deposit size has also surged to 1.23 BTC, the highest level in a year, suggesting larger market participants are either taking profits or repositioning^[2]. This pattern extends beyond Bitcoin, with Ethereum seeing its average deposit size climb to 41.7 ETH — the highest in nearly three years — as Ether prices declined toward $2,900^[2].

Altcoin selling pressure remains elevated, with approximately 40,000 daily transactions moving altcoins to exchanges since July. On October 17, this figure spiked to 78,000 transactions, marking a yearly peak^[2].

Market Outlook Remains Divided

The cryptocurrency market faces a critical juncture as technical recovery signals clash with concerning on-chain metrics. CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan noted that "the Bitcoin market is showing clearer signs—across futures, spot, and on-chain data—that the recent 'leveraged phase' is ending and longer-term capital is returning"^[3].

Van de Poppe described the overall crypto bull cycle as "far from over" while acknowledging he "wouldn't mind" a retest of $88,000 before any sustained rally^[3]. The coming days will prove crucial as Bitcoin attempts to reclaim six-figure territory amid persistent whale distribution and recovering market sentiment.