Bitcoin Never Truly Crossed $100K When Adjusted for Inflation, Galaxy Research Finds

Bitcoin Falls Short of Six-Figure Milestone in Real Terms

Bitcoin failed to reach the symbolic $100,000 threshold when accounting for inflation, despite the cryptocurrency achieving an all-time nominal peak above $126,000 in October, according to analysis from Galaxy head of research Alex Thorn.

"If you adjust the price of Bitcoin for inflation using 2020 dollars, BTC never crossed $100,000," Thorn said on Tuesday ^[1]. "It actually topped at $99,848 in 2020 dollar terms, if you can believe it."

Thorn's adjusted price calculation accounted for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decline in purchasing power incrementally across every inflation print from 2020 to today ^[1].

Declining Dollar Purchasing Power

The US dollar has lost approximately 20% of its value since 2020, with the CPI rising 2.7% over the last 12 months on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, as reported by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics in November ^[1]. The CPI measures inflation through tracking prices of a basket of goods and services to monitor changes in spending habits ^[1].

Today, the price of goods is 1.25 times higher than in 2020, according to the CPI, meaning a dollar today only purchases around 80% of what it could buy back then ^[1].

The Dollar Currency Index (DXY), which compares the US dollar to a basket of global currencies, has fallen 11% since the beginning of the year to 97.8, according to TradingView ^[1]. The index reached a three-year low of 96.3 in September and has been trending downward since October 2022 as the dollar loses ground against other currencies ^[1].

This currency weakness has contributed to the rise of the "debasement trade," an investment strategy where traders purchase assets they believe will maintain or increase value as fiat currency loses purchasing power ^[1].

Lower Volatility Signals Different Market Cycle

The Bitcoin market is experiencing markedly different characteristics compared to previous cycles, according to investor Anthony Pompliano. He noted that the decline in Bitcoin's volatility has largely gone unnoticed by Bitcoin holders, compared with the attention on the asset's price drop since the start of the year ^[2].

"We didn't get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3, or beginning of Q4, but we haven't seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect as well," Pompliano said ^[2].

Bitcoin is trading at $87,436 at the time of publication, down 7.39% from its price on January 1, according to CoinMarketCap ^[2].

Divergent Price Predictions for 2026

While Pompliano suggested Bitcoin may avoid the dramatic crashes seen in previous cycles, other analysts have issued more bearish forecasts. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted that Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026 ^[2].

Meanwhile, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's director of global macroeconomic research, said 2026 could be a "year off" for Bitcoin, with prices potentially falling to as low as $65,000 ^[2].