Bitcoin Price Forecast Through 2030: Analysts See Recovery Potential Despite Recent Correction

Dramatic Correction Hits Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin's price has experienced a dramatic correction over the span of just a few weeks: from an all-time high of 126,000 US dollars in early October, the leading cryptocurrency fell to 82,000 US dollars by late November ^[1]. Despite this volatility, analysts point to the impressive long-term development – over the past five years, Bitcoin has risen nearly 400 percent ^[1].

Recent price movements have particularly unsettled short-term investors, while market observers are already looking at potential recovery scenarios through 2030 ^[1].

On-Chain Data Signals Market Realignment

Analyses of blockchain data show a significant shift in market behavior. The CryptoQuant platform reports that the Bitcoin SOPR Ratio (Long-Term Holder SOPR / Short-Term Holder SOPR) has fallen to 1.35 – the lowest level since early 2024 ^[2]. This metric measures the ratio of profitable transactions between long-term and short-term investors.

"The speculative overheating that drove the ratio to record highs earlier in the cycle has been purged," analyzes CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain ^[2]. The data indicates an end to massive sell-offs by long-term holders and instead signals a market cooldown ^[2].

Short-term speculators reacted volatilely to price movements: the 30-day net change in their positions recorded a sharp increase on November 24, before turning negative again on December 1 ^[2].

Fed Interest Rate Decision as Key Factor

For the near future, analysts identify US Federal Reserve monetary policy as a decisive factor. Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and co-founder of the educational platform Coin Bureau, explains: "If the Fed cuts rates on December 10 and simultaneously ends quantitative tightening, there is little standing in the way of a Christmas rally for Bitcoin – barring major geopolitical surprises" ^[3].

However, Puckrin warns that investors will scrutinize every word from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the press conference for clues about monetary policy in 2026. "Any hawkish rhetoric could put a lid on the rally," the expert states ^[3].

Positive Signals from Market Environment

Chris Kim, co-founder and CEO of on-chain quantitative trading fund Axis, which manages 100 million US dollars in assets, sees a recovery trend: "The biggest driver at the moment is the macroeconomic environment" ^[3]. From a technical perspective, the market has already retested the region around 80,000 US dollars and the 100-week moving average ^[3].

Additional positive impulses come from developments such as Vanguard's approval of ETF trading ^[3]. Additionally, market participants are speculating about a possible appointment of Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, as the next Fed chair in early 2026, which according to Kim would herald a "significantly more dovish" monetary policy ^[3].

Long-Term Perspective Through 2030

Despite short-term volatility, the long-term perspective remains the focus for Bitcoin investors. Experts are developing various scenarios for price development through 2030, with macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, and increasing institutional adoption considered the primary influencing factors ^[1].