Bitcoin Price Forecasts: Experts Predict Return Above $100,000 by Year End

Volatile Market with Positive Signals

Bitcoin has recovered significantly over the past 24 hours and is currently trading around $91,400 – a gain of more than 4 percent ^[1][4]. The recent rally comes after a period of considerable market turbulence that had temporarily pushed the Bitcoin price well below the psychologically important $100,000 mark.

Notably, the recovery was accompanied by short-squeeze dynamics: Leveraged positions totaling $127 million were liquidated within 24 hours, with 89 percent of these being short positions ^[4]. This suggests that many market participants had bet on falling prices and were now forced to close out their positions.

Tom Lee Remains Optimistic Despite Setbacks

Tom Lee, analyst at Fundstrat, continues to express confidence in further price development. "I think it's very likely that BTC will climb above $100,000 before year-end," he explained in a recent interview with CNBC ^[2]. Even a new all-time high is possible – the previous record high stands at $126,100 ^[2].

However, Lee appears to have abandoned his previously much more optimistic forecast of $250,000 by year-end ^[3]. This adjustment followed a massive liquidation event in early October, which Lee described as the "largest liquidation in Bitcoin's 15-year history" ^[2]. On that day, approximately two million accounts were forcibly liquidated, and roughly one-third of market makers were driven from the market ^[2].

Historical Patterns and Critical Price Levels

Lee bases his optimism on a characteristic pattern of the Bitcoin market: the cryptocurrency typically achieves the bulk of its annual gains on just ten trading days ^[3]. An analysis by Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley supports this thesis: missing the ten best trading days essentially means missing the entire return ^[3]. In 2024, the ten strongest days delivered a combined return of 52 percent, while the remaining 355 days produced an average loss of 15 percent ^[3].

However, technical analysis paints a mixed picture. According to onchain data provider Glassnode, Bitcoin remains structurally "fragile" after the cryptocurrency lost its 50-week average and key support levels ^[1]. This structure resembles the first quarter of 2022 following the previous all-time highs, when "the market weakened amid waning demand" ^[1].

The critical resistance zone lies between $100,000 and $105,000, where the realized price of short-term holders and the 50-week average are located ^[1]. A recapture of these levels is considered necessary to prevent further losses. In a negative scenario, Bitcoin could fall below $81,000 ^[1].

Macroeconomic Support

Positive for the crypto market is the increased probability of a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in December, which now stands at 84 percent ^[4]. This has also boosted global stock markets and provided tailwinds for risk-prone asset classes such as cryptocurrencies.

However, Lee warns of potential further turbulence in the coming year: "We could see another 20 percent drawdown – a repeat of 2024" ^[2].