Bitcoin Price Targets Diverge as Analysts Debate Bull Market Status and Timing

Bearish Trader Forecasts 17% Drop to $76,000

Bitcoin faces conflicting price predictions as technical analysts debate whether the cryptocurrency's bull run has concluded. Trader Roman warned his X followers on Thursday to expect another 17% BTC price drop from current levels ^[1].

Since reaching recent local lows near $80,000, BTC/USD has struggled to mount a meaningful rebound, instead trading within an upward-sloping channel that could form a classic bear flag pattern—a relief bounce within a broader downtrend ^[1].

"Let the drop to 76k begin. Bear divs + bear price action proving their worth," Roman commented alongside technical charts showing price, volume, relative strength index (RSI), and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) data ^[1].

Roman noted that macroeconomic catalysts propelling stocks higher have failed to influence crypto market price action, with even lower US interest rates providing no relief ^[1]. "Bitcoin went up 750% from macro lows," Roman argued, referencing the 2022 bear market bottom at $15,600 ^[1].

"The bull run is over. Your best option now is to plan for the next one when we land around 50k," he stated ^[1].

Bulls Identify Support Levels Amid Fed Rate Cut

Crypto markets experienced a slight pickup after the US Federal Reserve's widely expected rate cut on Wednesday ^[2]. The central bank has executed three consecutive interest rate cuts totaling 0.75% over a three-month period from September to December ^[2].

Despite being fundamentally bullish for crypto in the long term, each cut triggered short-term sell-offs following a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern, according to onchain analytics firm Santiment ^[2]. However, there is "typically a bounce after the dust settles," the firm added on Thursday ^[2].

Trader Luca noted modest signs of improvement on Thursday, observing that Bitcoin's price was now above its bull market support band on the daily chart ^[1]. "If the price can manage to bounce off this support band, then the mid-term outlook will become decisively bullish again," Luca told X followers ^[1].

BTC/USD was attempting its fourth daily candle close above the support band, which would mark its longest stint above since early October ^[1]. Bitcoin recovered from its post-cut dip below $90,000 to spike to $93,500 on Coinbase during Friday morning trading, though resistance at that level proved too strong, sending the asset back to $92,300 ^[2].

2026 Bottom Predicted as Exchange Volumes Decline

Looking further ahead, crypto commentator Jason Pizzino forecast up to a year of lower lows for BTC/USD in his latest YouTube analysis on Thursday ^[3]. Bitcoin may not reach its long-term bottom until as late as October 2026, he predicted ^[3].

Pizzino referenced community expectations that BTC/USD will form a bounce zone during the coming 11 months but cautioned: "I think it's still too early to know whether this is going to be a low that then pushes to a new all-time high or a low that then pushes to a major lower high because of where we sit in the 18-year cycle" ^[3].

He specifically focused on Bitcoin trading volume grinding lower in a manner similar to the end of 2022 and into 2023, which served as the springboard for the current bull market ^[3].

CryptoQuant researchers identified a potential period of consolidation before a new market frenzy in their weekly report titled "The Calm Before The Vol" ^[3]. The platform flagged declining exchange inflows from large-volume entities, noting that "the share of total deposits from large players has declined from a 24-hour average high of 47% in mid-November to 21% as of today" ^[3].

CryptoQuant predicted that sustained reductions in selling pressure could send BTC/USD back to $99,000 ^[3].