Bitcoin Price Under Pressure: Onchain Data Shows Parallels to 2022 Bear Market Phase

Bitcoin Trading in Critical Support Zone

Bitcoin's price is currently in a precarious position. As onchain data provider Glassnode notes in its latest weekly report, the cryptocurrency has found support near the so-called "True Market Mean" at $81,500 ^[1]. This value represents the cost basis of all non-resting coins, excluding miners.

"This level often marks the dividing line between a mild bear phase and a deep bear market," explains Glassnode, adding: "Although the price has recently stabilized above this threshold, the broader market structure increasingly resembles the dynamics of the first quarter of 2022" ^[1].

Parallels to 2022 Bear Market Phase

Historical analysis reveals disturbing patterns. Between January 22 and May 5, 2022, Bitcoin traded above the True Market Mean. When the price fell below it on May 6, the cryptocurrency lost an additional 61 percent and reached a low of $15,500 in November of that year ^[1].

Particularly alarming: Since mid-November, Bitcoin's price has remained below the 0.75 quantile of the Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, which sits at approximately $96,100. This means that more than 25 percent of the total Bitcoin supply is currently underwater ^[1]. Glassnode describes the situation as "an extremely fragile balance between the risk of capitulation by top buyers and the potential for seller exhaustion".

Technical Analysis Points to Further Downside Potential

From a technical perspective, a concerning pattern has emerged. The recent recovery attempt was rejected at approximately $93,000—a level that corresponds to both the start of the year and the upper boundary of a bear flag ^[1].

Should Bitcoin fall below the lower boundary at $91,000, this would activate the bear flag and could lead to a decline to the measured target of $68,150—the previous all-time high from 2021. This would represent a total loss of 27 percent ^[1].

Macroeconomic Factors Burden the Market

Coinbase attributes current weakness to a "K-shaped recovery" in the U.S. economy. While companies boost profits and stock prices through artificial intelligence, this same technology creates job insecurity for the middle class ^[2].

The result: Bitcoin has decoupled significantly from equity markets and is trading more than three standard deviations below its 90-day average—a level last seen following the Terra-Luna collapse or the FTX bankruptcy ^[2].

Hope for Trend Reversal in December

Despite the bleak outlook, analysts see some bright spots. Coinbase experts David Duong and Colin Basco believe that "conditions favor a reversal in December" ^[2]. They cite the upcoming Fed decision on December 10, where a rate cut is likely, as well as historical experience showing that periods of extremely low valuations are often followed by sharp upward corrections ^[2].

Warning Signals Persist

However, experts caution against premature buying. U.S. spot ETFs recorded record outflows in November, and stablecoin supply—the "fuel" for crypto purchases—is declining ^[2]. Coinbase recommends a trend-based strategy rather than blind dollar-cost averaging: investors should wait for clear signals such as a recapture of the $98,000 level on high volume ^[2].