Bitcoin Proves Critics Wrong After 17 Years, as On-Chain Data Signals Potential Bull Market Continuation

Bitcoin Buries the Tulip Comparison

After 17 years of operation, Bitcoin has definitively proven it cannot be compared to historical asset bubbles like the Dutch tulip mania, according to prominent ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. The comparison, long a favorite among cryptocurrency skeptics, falls apart when examining Bitcoin's sustained resilience through multiple market cycles ^[1].

Balchunas noted that Bitcoin has simply given up the extreme excess of last year in its current price action. "Even if 2025 ends up flat or moderately down year, BTC is still operating at around 50% of its annual average," he stated, adding that assets are "allowed to cool off once in a while" and that people are "overanalyzing it" ^[1].

The ETF expert also challenged arguments about Bitcoin being a non-productive asset. "Yes, Bitcoin and tulips are both non-productive assets. But so is gold, so is a Picasso painting, rare stamps, would you compare those to tulips? Not all assets have to be productive to be valuable," Balchunas argued ^[1].

Historical Context: Three Years vs. Seventeen Years

The Dutch tulip mania of the 1630s presents a stark contrast to Bitcoin's trajectory. Tulip prices began rising rapidly in 1634, reached peak mania in 1636 when rare bulbs sold for more than Amsterdam houses, and collapsed in 1637 with prices plummeting over 90% in weeks ^[1].

Tulips were "marked by euphoria and crash," and that's it, making Bitcoin a "different animal," according to Balchunas ^[1]. Garry Krug, head of strategy at German Bitcoin treasury company Aifinyo, reinforced this view: "Bubbles don't survive multiple cycles, regulatory battles, geopolitical stress, halvings, exchange failures and still return to new highs" ^[1].

On-Chain Data Suggests Bull Market Continuation

While Bitcoin's price consolidates, on-chain indicators are painting a potentially bullish picture. Rising Bitcoin "liveliness" metrics suggest the current bull market may have more room to run, according to analysts examining blockchain data ^[2].

The magnitude of capital movement this cycle is unprecedented. Unlike 2017, where transactions were in the hundreds to thousands of dollars, this cycle has seen "several to tens of billions of dollars" changing hands, stated analyst Check ^[2].

"We have seen an extraordinary volume of coin days destroyed, and I am of the view we have just watched one of the greatest capital rotations and changing of the guard in Bitcoin history," Check explained ^[2].

Current Price Action and Outlook

Bitcoin traded around $89,500 after briefly dipping below $89,000 in early Sunday trading, showing relatively stable consolidation ^[2].

Analyst Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, characterized the current range as noise: "Anything between $86,000 and $92,000 is pretty much noise. Not much will happen for BTC" ^[2].

Van de Poppe outlined two scenarios: if $92,000 gets tested, "I think we'll break it, but if not, brace yourself for a test at the low $80,000 range for some sort of double-bottom pattern." He remained optimistic about timing, stating, "I don't think we're far off bottoming for Bitcoin, and that should result in a strong rally at the end of the year, going into Q1" ^[2].

The combination of Bitcoin's proven longevity and significant on-chain capital rotation suggests the asset has matured far beyond speculative bubble comparisons, establishing itself as a resilient component of the global financial landscape.