Bitcoin Rally Stalls at $94,000 – Market Abandons $100,000 Year-End Target

Prediction Markets Pessimistic on Year-End Rally

Expectations for a Bitcoin rally past the psychologically important $100,000 mark by year-end have diminished significantly. The prediction market Kalshi currently shows a probability of approximately 34 percent that Bitcoin will cross this threshold before December 31 ^[4]. On Polymarket, the corresponding estimate stands at 29 percent ^[4].

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of around $126,000 in August ^[1]. Since then, the price has declined considerably, temporarily dropping to the $80,000 range ^[1]. December's high of $94,600 was reached on Tuesday ^[4]. The BTC/USD pair last traded above $100,000 on November 13 ^[4].

Fed Rate Cut Fizzles Without Sustained Impact

Despite another quarter-point interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, Bitcoin failed to post a sustainable price increase ^[2]. The Fed cited moderate economic growth, inflation remaining above target, and a more cautious assessment of the labor market compared to October ^[2].

Fed Chair Powell's remark that interest rates lie "plausibly near the neutral range" had a dampening effect ^[2], signaling a possible pause in January. Interest rate futures now price in a 78 percent probability for this scenario ^[2].

The brief spike to $94,000 following the Fed decision quickly evaporated, resulting in a correction below $90,000 ^[2]. Analysts characterize this as a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" effect. "What should actually be bullish news has had a short-term bearish effect due to many retail investors buying while larger whales are happy to sell them their coins," according to market commentary ^[2].

Liquidity Decline Hampers Market Recovery

According to crypto analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin's weakness stems less from sentiment swings than from declining liquidity, particularly in stablecoins ^[3]. Data reveals significant liquidity contraction: ERC-20 stablecoin inflows have fallen from $158 billion in August to approximately $76 billion this month – a decline of nearly 50 percent ^[3]. The longer-term 90-day average has also declined from $130 billion to $118 billion ^[3].

Darkfost noted that recent recoveries are not driven by strong accumulation but rather by periods of reduced selling pressure ^[3]. The market lacks the liquidity needed to reach higher highs or defend key support levels ^[3].

Institutional Buyers Losing Momentum

Data from Capriole Investments shows that the rate of companies making daily Bitcoin purchases continues to decline – a sign that institutional buyers may be exhausted ^[4]. Bitcoin treasury company purchases have slowed considerably of late, further complicating potential short-term recovery moves ^[1].

One factor remains stable: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues its regular purchases unabated ^[1]. Earlier this week, Strategy expanded its holdings by 10,624 Bitcoin worth approximately one billion US dollars ^[1].

Technical Resistance Levels Persist

From a structural perspective, Bitcoin has now failed three consecutive times to break through the $93,000 level ^[3]. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed to the supply zone between the year's opening price of $93,300 and $94,000 ^[4]. A break and hold above $94,000 should lead to movement toward the measured target around $108,000, though it could also only reach to a "retest of the previous support area at approximately $98,000" ^[4].

Bitcoin is also approaching confirmation of a bearish rising wedge, which becomes active if price falls below $88,000 ^[3]. A breakdown would expose an external liquidity sweep around $84,000, with deeper downside potential toward quarterly lows at $80,600 ^[3].