Bitcoin Struggles at $92K Resistance as Pro Traders Remain Skeptical Despite Institutional Support

Mixed Signals Cloud Bitcoin's Path to $100K

Bitcoin has encountered significant resistance around the $92,000 level over the past two weeks, with professional traders displaying caution even as institutional sentiment shows signs of improvement and retail participation increases.

The leading cryptocurrency's recent drop to $90,000 was accelerated by the forceful liquidation of $92 million in bullish leveraged BTC futures^[1], highlighting the market's sensitivity to leveraged positions. Despite Bitcoin's 28% decline since its October all-time high, the cryptocurrency has found support around the $90,000 mark^[1].

Institutional Optimism Contrasts With Trader Caution

While professional traders remain skeptical, institutional voices have expressed bullish outlooks. Bernstein analysts noted that "the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling"^[2].

BlackRock chair and CEO Larry Fink revealed that sovereign wealth funds are "incrementally" buying Bitcoin, stating: "I know they bought more in the 80s. And they're establishing a longer position. And you own it over years. This is not a trade"^[2].

Strategy reinforced this institutional confidence on Monday by announcing a fresh purchase of 10,624 BTC valued at $962.7 million, acquired at an average price of $90,615 per coin^[2]. According to Bitwise European head of research Andre Dragosch, this "was the biggest amount since July 2025"^[2].

Technical Indicators Point to Continued Consolidation

Despite improving sentiment, Bitcoin's monthly futures premium relative to spot prices has remained below the neutral 5% threshold for the past two weeks^[1], indicating weak demand for bullish leverage among professional traders.

Order book data reveals significant selling pressure, with a wall of asks starting at $90,000 and thickening from $94,000 to $95,000^[2]. Cumulative volume data shows that larger trade-size cohorts in the 1,000 to 100,000 and 100,000 to 1 million ranges appear to be selling on rallies in the $90,000 to $93,000 price range^[2].

Chartered market technician Aksel Kibar suggested that "this is part of the choppy price action where BTC/USD is possibly trying to find a bottom," noting that "technical support is lower between $73.7K and $76.5K"^[2].

Macroeconomic Headwinds Weigh on Sentiment

Broader economic concerns have contributed to trader caution. Bitcoin underperformed the stock market, with the S&P 500 index standing just 1.2% below its all-time high of 6,920^[1], signaling risk-aversion among cryptocurrency investors.

Official US government data on employment and inflation has been delayed due to a 43-day funding shutdown that ended in November, reducing visibility into economic conditions^[1]. Private sector data has been concerning, with a job report showing 71,321 layoffs in November^[1].

The real estate market has also shown weakness, with Redfin data indicating that 15% of home purchase agreements were cancelled in October^[1], while the median list price in November slipped 0.4% from a year earlier^[1].

Retail Participation Increases Despite Headwinds

While professional traders remain cautious, retail investor participation has shown improvement. Cumulative volume data highlights rising participation from investors in the 0 to 100 BTC trade cohort^[2].

However, the lack of inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds over the past couple of weeks has weighed on demand for bullish exposure^[1]. Whether Bitcoin can reach $100,000 in the near term will depend largely on improved visibility in the US job market and real estate conditions^[1].

Liquidation heatmap data shows short liquidity at $94,000 to $95,300, which could provide fuel for a bullish breakout if sufficient catalysts emerge^[2].