Bitcoin Struggles at Key Resistance While Ethereum Shows Technical Strength Ahead of Fed Decision

Bitcoin Fails to Reclaim Yearly Open

Bitcoin's price action continues to struggle at critical resistance levels, with the cryptocurrency unable to flip its yearly open at $93,500—an indication that "the bear thesis remains strong," according to trading resource Material Indicators ^[3]. The digital asset weakened following surprisingly low US jobless claims data, which came in below expectations despite signaling economic resilience ^[3].

Multiple technical hurdles lie ahead for Bitcoin, including resistance in the $96,000-$98,000 range and the 50-week simple and exponential moving averages. "Too soon to call this a bull market recovery," Material Indicators stated. "Need to clear those resistance levels with a healthy RSI at the Weekly Close before we can have that conversation" ^[3].

However, the market structure has undergone significant changes. A notable drop in open interest from $94 billion to $60 billion has normalized the market without eliminating spot inflows, creating what analysts describe as a cleaner base for potential continuation ^[2]. Deep liquidity clusters have migrated to the upside, with $3 billion in cumulative short positions positioned for liquidation at $96,000 and over $7 billion at the $100,000 level ^[2].

Fed Rate Decision Looms Large

Markets are pricing in an 89% probability of a third consecutive rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December 10 meeting ^[3], despite ongoing debate about the forward path of monetary policy. "The Fed has no option: Even as inflation hits 3%, the Fed MUST cut rates to 'save' US consumers," trading resource The Kobeissi Letter argued, noting a widening gap between struggling consumers and soaring large-cap technology stocks ^[3].

A rate cut would theoretically support further liquidity inflows into cryptocurrencies and risk assets. However, Mosaic Asset Company cautioned that "deep divisions are emerging on the forward path of interest rates," potentially injecting volatility into markets even as underlying internals evolve favorably ^[3].

Ethereum Demonstrates Superior Technical Setup

While Bitcoin struggles, Ethereum has established a cleaner technical structure, recently confirming a break of structure by pushing above $3,200 to reach a 20-day high ^[1]. This move flipped prior resistance and initiated a trend shift, placing ETH in a structural advantage over Bitcoin, which still needs a decisive daily close above $96,000 to confirm its own breakout ^[1].

The ETH/BTC pair recently broke above a 30-day consolidation zone, supported by a successful retest of the 200-day simple moving average—a trend baseline that has held firm since July ^[1]. Historically, such breaks have aligned with periods of sustained Ethereum outperformance.

If Bitcoin stabilizes above $94,000 and secures a close above $96,000, Ethereum is well-positioned to extend its uptrend by retesting the $3,650 swing high and potentially targeting $3,900—representing approximately 20% upside from current levels ^[1].

Retail investors have shown renewed interest in Ethereum, with spot average order size metrics revealing aggressive accumulation when ETH dipped below $2,700 on November 21 ^[1]. Ethereum's net unrealized profit/loss currently stands near 0.22, indicating a balanced market without euphoric sentiment, while remaining above the 0.20 threshold that supports rebound potential ^[1].

Cycle Dynamics Shift

Analysts increasingly argue that Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle no longer fully explains current market structure. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that while the four-year cycle hasn't disappeared, it "no longer aligns cleanly with time-based expectations" ^[2]. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have introduced a constant structural bid, accelerating price discovery and raising Bitcoin's effective floor compared with earlier cycles ^[2].

Van de Poppe compared the current environment to mid-2016 or late-2019, stating: "We're nowhere near a top on Bitcoin, and we're still in the final easy cycle of crypto with exorbitant returns" ^[2]. This structural shift suggests December's performance may depend less on historical seasonality and more on new forces like ETF flows and shifting macroeconomic correlations.