Bitcoin Targets $107K Rally After Filling CME Gap and Breaking Key Technical Pattern

Bitcoin has achieved a significant technical milestone by filling a CME futures gap near $94,800, setting the stage for a potential rally toward the $100,000 threshold and beyond, according to recent technical and fundamental analysis.

CME Gap Closure Signals Bullish Momentum

The cryptocurrency has successfully closed the CME futures gap that formed near $94,800, which analysts consider a bullish signal ^[1]. These gaps occur when Bitcoin's weekend price movements on continuously operating spot markets create unfilled price ranges on the CME futures chart, which does not trade during weekends ^[1].

Historically, these gaps have acted as focal points for technical traders and tend to be revisited and filled by subsequent price action ^[1]. With a weekly close above the $94,000 level potentially achieved, the door may now be open for Bitcoin to extend its rally toward the $100,000 mark ^[1].

Ascending Triangle Breakout Points to $107K Target

Bitcoin confirmed a breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle pattern earlier this week, subsequently shifting into a post-breakout retest phase ^[2]. After pushing above the pattern's upper boundary near $95,000, the cryptocurrency pulled back to retest the former resistance as support before bouncing higher, a movement typically associated with valid breakouts rather than false moves ^[2].

The pattern's measured upside objective sits near $107,000, calculated by adding the triangle's maximum height to the breakout point, with this target potentially achievable by February ^[2]. Additionally, Bitcoin's daily chart is approaching a potential bullish crossover between the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages ^[2]. The last time such a bull cross occurred, Bitcoin's price advanced by approximately 17% over the following month ^[2].

Weekly Gains Supported by Corporate Buying

Bitcoin posted a 5% gain this week, benefiting from bargain buying after a subdued start to the new year ^[1]. A significant portion of the week's gains came after Strategy disclosed a purchase exceeding $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, raising hopes about improving corporate demand ^[1]. The company acquired 13,627 BTC for approximately $1.25 billion at roughly $91,519 per bitcoin ^[1].

As of early trading, Bitcoin was trading at $95,100, down just a fraction of a percentage ^[1].

Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Declines

Supporting the bullish outlook, selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders has continued to fade ^[2]. Data tracking unspent transaction outputs from holders who have maintained their positions for more than five years showed that distribution into recent local tops had slowed materially ^[2].

The 90-day average of spent outputs peaked near 2,300 BTC earlier in the cycle but subsequently declined toward the 1,000 BTC level, suggesting fewer coins are hitting the market ^[2]. "Their selling pressure, which can sometimes be massive, has clearly decreased, and the prevailing trend now seems to lean more toward holding rather than distribution," said analyst DarkFrost ^[2].

This slowdown in selling from original Bitcoin holders aligned with the largest net Bitcoin outflows from exchanges since December 2024 ^[2].

Macro Factors and Gold Divergence

Another supportive signal emerged from Bitcoin's historical relationship with gold ^[2]. In past instances where Bitcoin's correlation with gold turned negative, the cryptocurrency rallied by an average of 56% within roughly two months ^[2]. The current setup appears more favorable, supported by rising global liquidity and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening ^[2].

Bitwise's Matt Hougan noted that Bitcoin bull markets have historically coincided with expanding global M2 supply, suggesting that the ongoing monetary easing cycle could position Bitcoin to outperform gold in 2026 ^[2].