Bitcoin Traders Eye $105K Target Amid Mixed Technical Signals and Market Uncertainty

Bitcoin traders are navigating conflicting signals as technical indicators suggest potential upside while price action remains locked in a tight range, with external factors including U.S. policy decisions adding to market uncertainty.

RSI Signals Point to Potential Rally

A trader operating under the name BitBull identified a significant breakout on Bitcoin's weekly relative strength index (RSI), suggesting the cryptocurrency could climb to between $103,000 and $105,000 within three to four weeks ^[1]. The RSI, which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, broke out of a three-month downtrend that began in September and has maintained its position above the breakout line ^[1].

The current pattern mirrors a similar RSI breakout from earlier last year, which preceded several months of price gains following local lows around $75,000 in April ^[1]. James Easton, host of crypto trading podcast DeCRYPTion, noted that the two-week RSI chart has reached lower levels than during Bitcoin's bear market bottom in late 2022 and has recently flipped bullish ^[1].

On shorter timeframes, the four-hour chart displays a potential hidden bullish divergence, where lower lows on the RSI contrast with higher lows in price action, suggesting weakening sell-side pressure as Bitcoin attempts to establish $90,000 as a support level ^[1].

Range-Bound Trading Dominates

Despite bullish technical indicators, Bitcoin has pulled back to its moving averages, indicating bears are actively defending the $94,789 level ^[2]. Both moving averages are flattening, and the RSI sits at the midpoint, signaling a balance between buyers and sellers ^[2].

Traders expressed little interest in attempting to capture short-term movements while the market remains indecisive. "Still ranging as has been the case for the past ~2 months. I am not interested in trying to trade the next 5% move on this at all," stated Daan Crypto Trades ^[3]. Trading account Deadline identified $88,000 and $92,000 as critical levels, noting that Bitcoin needs to reclaim the higher level to confirm bullish momentum or could drop to fill a remaining gap in CME Group's Bitcoin futures market ^[3].

External Factors Add Uncertainty

Bitcoin hovered around $90,000 as markets awaited a potential U.S. Supreme Court ruling on trade tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump ^[3]. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reported that prediction markets showed a 74% probability of the tariffs being ruled illegal ^[3]. Coin Bureau noted that "the decision could reshape trade policy and ripple across global markets, including crypto" ^[3].

U.S. unemployment data released Friday came in lower than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates at current levels during its January meeting ^[3].

Bearish Scenarios Remain in Play

Several traders anticipate potential downside before a sustained recovery materializes. Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan projected Bitcoin could drop to a support zone between $87,500 and $89,000 ^[2]. Trader Roman presented a more bearish outlook, forecasting a decline to $76,000 ^[2].

However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju suggested Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a 50% crash from its all-time high comparable to previous bear markets, instead anticipating sideways movement for the coming months ^[2]. On a longer-term perspective, Smarter Web Company Bitcoin strategy head Jesse Myers noted that Bitcoin has historically averaged 95% gains in the year following a down year, suggesting 2026 could prove positive after the 6.33% decline in 2025 ^[2].