Bitcoin Under Pressure: Fidelity Director Warns of New Crypto Winter, Tether CEO Sees AI Bubble as Biggest Risk

Bitcoin Defends Critical Support Level

The Bitcoin price is currently under considerable pressure. Buyers are attempting to defend the support at $84,000, but any recovery is likely to encounter selling pressure at the moving averages ^[1]. The 20-day EMA currently stands at $89,369, and technical indicators suggest a slight advantage for the bears ^[1].

Should the price fall below the $84,000 mark, Bitcoin could slip to $80,600 ^[1]. Only a sustained rise above the resistance level of $94,589 would signal a possible trend reversal and pave the way for a rally toward $100,000 ^[1].

Fidelity Director Predicts Multi-Year Bear Market

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, warns of a new crypto winter that could be comparable to the bear markets of 2018 and 2022 ^[2]. "While I remain bullish on Bitcoin, I fear that BTC may have completed another four-year halving cycle both in terms of price and time," Timmer writes in an X post ^[2].

Since Bitcoin bear markets typically last about a year according to the Fidelity director, 2026 could become a potential "time-out year" for Bitcoin ^[2]. Timmer explains: "If we visually overlay all the bull markets (green), we see that the October high of $125,000 after 145 months of upswing fits pretty well with what one might expect" ^[2]. He expects significant support only between $65,000 and $75,000 ^[2].

Criticism of the Four-Year Cycle Theory

Not all market observers share Timmer's analysis based on the four-year cycle. "Cycles mattered most when Bitcoin was primarily driven by retail investors and miners," X user Garry Krug suggests ^[2]. However, institutions and governments have a longer investment horizon, which changes the bottoming and recovery dynamics ^[2].

Tether CEO Sees AI Bubble as Biggest Bitcoin Risk

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino identifies a possible AI bubble as the biggest risk for Bitcoin in 2026 ^[3]. In a podcast conversation, he explained that Bitcoin remains closely linked to global capital markets ^[3]. Should sentiment toward major AI companies turn negative, this could also affect Bitcoin's price development ^[3].

Ardoino pointed to high investments in data centers and infrastructure and spoke of excessive expectations in the AI sector ^[3]. At the same time, the Tether CEO sees no comparable risk mix for 2026 that led to the sharp price declines of 2018 or 2022 ^[3]. Given growing participation from pension funds and government entities, he considers drastic corrections of 80 percent unlikely ^[3].

Tokenization as Growth Opportunity

Ardoino expressed optimism about developments in the tokenization of real-world assets ^[3]. Securities and commodities on the blockchain could gain significant importance in his assessment ^[3].

The Tether CEO was less optimistic when looking at Europe. He criticized that the region continues to lose innovative capacity and is attempting to regulate markets whose functioning it does not yet sufficiently understand ^[3]. The implementation of MiCA regulation has demonstrated this and has already led to delistings of the stablecoin USDT ^[3].