Bitcoin Volatility Falls Below Nvidia as Market Structure Evolves, Analysts Say

Bitcoin Shows Lower Volatility Than Tech Giant

Bitcoin has exhibited less price volatility than Nvidia in 2025, marking a significant shift in the cryptocurrency's market behavior as its investor base continues to mature, according to analysis from Bitwise ^[1].

Bitcoin experienced a 68% price change from its lowest level of $75,000 in April to its all-time high of $126,000 in early October ^[1]. By comparison, Nvidia saw a larger 120% price swing, moving from a low of $94 in early April to a 2025 high of $207 in late October ^[1].

Bitwise predicts that Bitcoin will continue to be less volatile than Nvidia in 2026 ^[1]. The asset management firm attributed this reduced volatility to "the fundamental derisking of Bitcoin as an investment and the diversification of its investor base thanks to traditional investment vehicles like ETFs" ^[1].

Traditional Cycles Weakening as Market Matures

Multiple analysts suggest that Bitcoin's traditional four-year halving cycle is losing its influence over price behavior. Bitwise stated that "forces like the Bitcoin halving, interest rate cycles, and crypto booms and busts fueled by leverage are weaker than in past cycles" ^[1].

Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor, reinforced this view by pointing to extended debt refinancing cycles and evolving liquidity dynamics, suggesting the current market structure could persist well into 2026 ^[2].

Jurrien Timmer, director of Global Macro at Fidelity, placed the current phase within a broader wave structure spanning 2022 to 2025, which has delivered a 105% compound annual growth rate over 145 weeks ^[2]. Timmer expects future cycles to evolve with flatter slopes as adoption matures, though price modeling suggests a potential path toward $300,000 by 2029 if a new expansion phase emerges ^[2].

Current Drawdown Not a Bear Market, Traders Say

Despite recent price weakness, crypto trader Jackis noted that even a decline to $70,000 would not resemble prior bear markets ^[2]. Unlike 2022 or early 2024, the current drawdown lacks systemic macro-driven risk-off pressure, instead reflecting a rotation of supply from early holders to institutional participants ^[2].

Market analyst Jelle highlighted a potential bullish divergence forming on Bitcoin's three-day chart, noting that previous three-day divergences in this cycle have coincided with local bottoms, though confirmation requires additional time and consolidation ^[2].

Bittel pointed to Bitcoin's historical behavior following oversold RSI readings below 30, with data showing Bitcoin tends to track a well-defined recovery path after such conditions emerge ^[2]. While short-term volatility remains likely, Bittel argued that bases often take time to form and are usually accompanied by choppy price action before a sustained uptrend resumes ^[2].

Institutional Adoption Expected to Accelerate

Bitwise made several bullish predictions for 2026, including a new all-time high for Bitcoin and increased institutional participation ^[1]. The firm predicted that traditional institutions like Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch would enter crypto, while allocations to spot crypto exchange-traded funds would increase ^[1].

The firm also stated that pro-crypto regulatory shifts will continue to allow companies to adopt crypto at a faster rate, and predicted that crypto equities will outperform tech equities ^[1]. "Tech stocks have done well, up 140% over the past three years, but crypto equities are doing even better," Bitwise noted ^[1].

Timmer acknowledged that Bitcoin may still experience a deeper correction into the $65,000 to $75,000 range in 2026, but emphasized that such zones have acted as strong buy zones historically ^[2].