Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Faces New Challenges as MSCI Imposes Restrictions on Treasury Companies

MSCI Spares Bitcoin Treasuries But Introduces Critical Limitations

Major index provider MSCI announced it will not exclude Bitcoin treasury company stocks from its index universe, providing relief to firms like MicroStrategy that faced potential capital outflows of up to $2.8 billion ^[3]. However, the decision came with significant strings attached that could fundamentally alter how these companies operate.

MicroStrategy celebrated the announcement on social media, calling it "a strong result for neutral indexing and economic reality" and thanking investors and the Bitcoin community ^[3]. The company's stock had fallen 52 percent below its prior year level and 65 percent below its all-time high from July at the time of the announcement ^[3].

The Hidden Cost of Remaining in Indexes

While reversing the exclusion proposal, MSCI simultaneously introduced a technical freeze on share counts for Bitcoin treasury companies. The index provider stated it "will not make increases to the number of shares (NOS), foreign inclusion factor (FIF), or domestic inclusion factor (DIF) for these securities" ^[3].

This technical change effectively severs the connection between new share issuances and automatic passive purchases by index-tracking funds. Previously, when MicroStrategy issued new shares to acquire additional Bitcoin, MSCI would later adjust the share count, forcing ETFs tracking the index to purchase a portion of the new shares ^[3]. This mechanism provided a price-independent demand anchor that is now eliminated.

MSCI also announced plans to conduct "a more comprehensive consultation on the treatment of non-operational companies in general," signaling potential future restrictions on firms whose main activities are investment-oriented ^[3].

Industry Consolidation in European Markets

Meanwhile, corporate Bitcoin adoption continues to evolve in Europe. Future Holdings AG, a Switzerland-based Bitcoin treasury company backed by Blockstream founder Adam Back, entered a non-binding letter of intent with Sweden-listed H100 Group for a potential acquisition ^[2].

The proposed transaction values Future Holdings at approximately 375,000 Swiss francs (roughly $471,000) plus the company's cash balance at closing, bringing the total expected purchase price to about 600,000 Swiss francs ($753,000) ^[2]. Payment would be made in newly issued H100 shares at the closing price on the last trading day before the letter of intent ^[2].

Future Holdings chairman Richard Byworth stated that "combining Future with H100 creates a public-market platform and governance framework that we believe is essential for building long-term institutional credibility in the Swiss market" ^[2]. The company was co-founded by Back in November 2025 with industry veterans Richard Byworth and Sebastien Hess, raising $35 million for its Bitcoin treasury ^[2].

The deal remains subject to due diligence, negotiation of definitive agreements, and regulatory approvals, with signing and closing expected in January 2026 ^[2].

Bullish Predictions Despite Market Headwinds

Despite current challenges facing Bitcoin treasury stocks, some industry figures remain extremely optimistic. Jan3 founder Samson Mow predicted that Tesla CEO Elon Musk will "go hard into BTC" in 2026, representing what he described as a major shift in Musk's approach to the cryptocurrency ^[1].

Mow also forecast Bitcoin's price could reach $1.33 million in 2026, representing more than 1,300 percent growth from its current level near $90,000 ^[1]. He expects MicroStrategy's stock to rise to $5,000 and predicts at least one country will launch Bitcoin-backed bonds ^[1].

However, not all industry observers share this bullish outlook. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects Bitcoin to rise over time but with lower volatility and no dramatic price explosion ^[1].

MicroStrategy CEO Phong Le had criticized MSCI's original exclusion proposal as arbitrary discrimination against digital innovations, comparing the exclusion of Bitcoin firms for holding BTC to "punishing Chevron for owning oil" ^[3].