Crypto Market in Consolidation Mode: Experts See Stablecoins and Institutional Adoption as Dominant Trends for 2026

From Hype to Infrastructure: The Crypto Market Seeks Its New Direction

The crypto market stands at a turning point in early 2026. After the euphoric rally of the previous year, sentiment has noticeably cooled – yet beneath the surface, a fundamental transformation is taking place. The BTC-ECHO Insider survey of 42 industry experts in cooperation with IU International University shows: The crypto optimism index has fallen from 79 to 71.2 points, and only 23.8 percent of respondents now rate the economic situation of crypto companies as good – compared to 68.6 percent in the previous quarter ^[1]. At the same time, it is becoming clear that the industry is maturing: away from speculative hypes, toward regulated, institutional integration.

This consolidation is also reflected in trading volumes. Spot trading volumes on major crypto exchanges have collapsed from around $2 trillion in October to $1 trillion at the end of January – a 50 percent decline indicating a "clear retreat by investors" ^[3]. At Binance alone, Bitcoin volumes dropped from $200 billion to $104 billion ^[3].

The Facts

The expert survey reveals divided expectations: In the short term, insiders expect an average Bitcoin price of $92,226 within one month. In a worst-case scenario with a 10 percent probability, BTC could fall to $74,024, while in the best case it could rise to $107,286 ^[1]. Looking six months ahead, experts are significantly more optimistic: By July 2026, they expect an average Bitcoin price of $105,071 – a return of 16.8 percent ^[1].

The crypto business climate index for the next six months stands at 35.7 points, well below the 60.8 points from the previous quarter. Still, 47.6 percent of respondents expect an improvement in business conditions, while 11.9 percent fear deterioration ^[1]. Dr. André Dragosch from Bitwise puts the short-term perspective succinctly: "I think the crypto market will likely continue to consolidate in the first quarter, even though the bottom is most likely already behind us" ^[1].

Macroeconomic conditions are weighing heavily on the markets. Justin d'Anethan from Arctic Digital cites as the biggest short-term risk the "uncertainty around Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance as Fed Chair, which could mean fewer or slower rate cuts, a stronger dollar, and higher real interest rates – all of which weighs on risk assets including crypto" ^[3]. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost attributes the decline to the "liquidation event of October 10" and states: "Spot demand is drying up" ^[3].

Nevertheless, a clear trend is emerging: Stablecoins dominate as the top theme for 2026. Maximilian Bruckner from Zodia Custody explains: "Companies and financial institutions will increasingly use stablecoins to make cross-border payments and settlement processes more efficient" ^[1]. Bernhard Wenger from 21Shares predicts specific milestones: "Blockchain technology is definitively establishing itself as global financial infrastructure, with stablecoins exceeding the $1 trillion mark and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) growing to over $500 billion" ^[1].

Interestingly, institutional investors show a different picture: According to JPMorgan Private Bank, 89 percent of the 333 family offices surveyed worldwide have no crypto exposure whatsoever, while the average allocation stands at a meager 0.4 percent – Bitcoin alone at 0.2 percent ^[2]. Instead, 65 percent of family offices prioritize investments in artificial intelligence, while only 17 percent view crypto as an important investment theme ^[2]. Private equity leads planned allocation increases, with 37 percent of respondents planning to increase their investments over the next 12 to 18 months ^[2].

Analysis & Context

Current developments mark a fundamental paradigm shift in the crypto sector. The consolidation phase is not a sign of weakness, but rather the necessary transition from the speculation phase to the infrastructure phase. As Lutz Wengorz from Agitarex aptly puts it: "The crypto industry in 2026 is in transition from the hype phase to the infrastructure phase" ^[1]. This development is being accelerated by regulatory clarity in the US (Clarity Act) and the EU (MiCA).

The discrepancy between institutional reluctance among family offices and operational integration by financial institutions is revealing. While wealthy families largely avoid crypto, banks, payment service providers, and companies are massively expanding their blockchain-based infrastructure. This suggests a bifurcation: Crypto as a speculative investment is losing attractiveness, while blockchain technology as financial infrastructure is gaining importance. Konstantin Kraus from Kraken confirms this: "Institutional investors today view crypto less as a speculative fringe phenomenon, but increasingly as an independent asset class with clear requirements for market infrastructure, liquidity, custody, and compliance" ^[1].

Historically speaking, consolidation phases after euphoric rallies are typical for Bitcoin cycles. The current situation resembles previous phases after all-time highs, in which excessive leverage had to be reduced and valuations readjusted. Justin d'Anethan puts it aptly: "It may be bitter medicine, but the recent move ultimately feels necessary and healthy to reduce leverage, dampen speculation, and force investors to reconsider valuations" ^[3]. However, technical analysis by Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson shows that the Bitcoin price has not yet reached bottom: A bear market only begins when the Realized Price of Short-Term Holders falls below that of Long-Term Holders – a scenario that could occur with a drop below $74,000 ^[3].

Medium-term prospects nevertheless remain constructive. The structural drivers – institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, stablecoin expansion, and tokenization of real assets – remain intact. The experts' 6-month forecast of $105,071 implies a recovery and suggests that consolidation is being viewed as a buying opportunity. Critical will be whether macroeconomic catalysts such as a dovish Fed pivot or, as Dr. André Dragosch speculates, a correction in the precious metals market followed by rotation into crypto assets materialize ^[1].

Conclusion

• The crypto market is undergoing a necessary consolidation phase with significantly decreased trading volumes and dampened sentiment, which nevertheless lays the foundation for sustainable growth – in the short term, experts expect moderate prices around $92,000, with a medium-term recovery to over $105,000

• Stablecoins are emerging as the dominant trend for 2026 with projected market capitalizations exceeding $1 trillion and increasing integration into corporate treasury functions and cross-border payment systems – the focus is shifting from speculation to functional infrastructure

• Institutional adoption is progressing, albeit in a bifurcated manner: While family offices largely avoid crypto with an average allocation of only 0.4 percent, banks and financial institutions are actively integrating blockchain technology into their operational infrastructure

• Macroeconomic risks from hawkish Fed policy, geopolitical uncertainties, and US liquidity constraints weigh on short-term performance, while regulatory progress (Clarity Act, MiCA) and infrastructure maturation open medium-term growth opportunities

• The market stands at a turning point from speculative asset to established financial infrastructure – patient investors could benefit from this transformation, while short-term oriented traders must expect continued volatility