Crypto Market in Transition: Fundamental Data Displaces Speculation Bubbles

Paradigm Shift in the Crypto Market

The crypto market is undergoing a fundamental transformation: moving away from speculative hype toward measurable fundamental data. A new analysis by Greenfield Capital demonstrates that fundamental metrics now explain up to 88 percent of valuation growth in DeFi protocols ^[1]. This development marks the end of an era in which memes, narratives, and short-term hypes dictated prices.

Fundamental Data Gaining Importance

The study, which analyzed the period from 2021 to 2025, reveals a clear trend: the market increasingly punishes pure speculation and instead rewards genuine yields ^[1]. For a long time, the crypto market was regarded as an irrational casino, but this phase appears to be over. Investors still steering their portfolios according to the rules of the last bull run risk their capital, according to the study ^[1].

Particularly noteworthy is that certain fundamental metrics have worked even during poor market phases since 2024 ^[1]. By contrast, factors such as "social sentiment" and the number of Twitter followers now have little influence on long-term price movements ^[1]. This points to increasing professionalization and maturation of the market.

Musk's Vision: Energy as New Currency

Parallel to this market development, tech billionaire Elon Musk commented on a possible future of money. In a remarkable statement, he predicted that money in its current form could become obsolete ^[2]. "If AI and robotics are large enough to satisfy all human needs, then money loses dramatic relevance," Musk explained ^[2].

Particularly interesting is Musk's perspective on Bitcoin: he argues that energy is the "true currency" and that Bitcoin has a decisive advantage over traditional fiat currencies because it is based on energy ^[2]. "You can issue fake fiat currency, and every government in history has done so, but it is impossible to fake energy," emphasized the Tesla CEO ^[2].

Energy as Physical Foundation

Musk pointed out that future "fundamental currencies" will be "physics-based" ^[2]. "You cannot simply create energy by law," he said, adding that it is difficult to generate energy, particularly to use it "in useful ways" ^[2]. These considerations led him to the prediction: "We will probably just have energy, electricity generation as a de facto currency" ^[2].

The energy-intensive Bitcoin mining process, in which specialized hardware validates transactions and is rewarded with new BTC, underpins this unique characteristic of the cryptocurrency according to Musk ^[2].

Current Market Development

Despite these long-term positive perspectives, Bitcoin recorded a price decline of more than 4 percent within 24 hours following Musk's remarks ^[2]. Analysts attribute this decline to a broader market downturn and thin liquidity ^[2].

Conclusion for Investors

The combination of the Greenfield Capital study and Musk's remarks underscores a fundamental shift in the crypto ecosystem. While the market increasingly orients itself toward measurable metrics, the energy-based nature of Bitcoin could become a decisive value factor in the long term. For investors, this means: considering fundamental data becomes increasingly important to avoid misguided investments and make the right decisions ^[1].