Crypto Market Under Pressure: Bitcoin Treasury Firms in Crisis, XRP Investors in Fear

Bitcoin Treasury Model at Inflection Point

The once-booming business strategy of Bitcoin treasury companies faces collapse. According to a recent analysis by Galaxy Research, these firms are in a "Darwinian phase" in which the core mechanics of their business model no longer function^[1].

The so-called Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) trade has reached its natural limit, as stock prices have fallen below Bitcoin's net asset value (NAV). This causes the emission-driven growth loop to reverse, turning leverage into a burden^[1].

Dramatic Price Collapses

The turning point came when Bitcoin crashed from its October high near $126,000 to around $80,000. This triggered a sharp contraction in risk appetite and drained liquidity from the market^[1].

DAT shares, which traded at high premiums to NAV during the summer, now predominantly trade at discounts – despite Bitcoin itself being only about 30 percent below its highs^[1]. Particularly striking: companies such as Metaplanet and Nakamoto, which previously posted hundreds of millions of dollars in unrealized gains, now sit deeply in the red, as their average Bitcoin purchase prices exceed $107,000^[1].

An extreme example is the firm NAKA, whose stock price has collapsed by more than 98 percent from its peak^[1].

Three Possible Future Scenarios

Galaxy Research outlines three possible development paths for the industry. The base case scenario anticipates an extended period of compressed premiums, in which BTC-per-share growth stagnates and DAT stocks offer more downside risk than Bitcoin itself^[1].

A second scenario is consolidation: companies that massively issued shares at high premiums, bought Bitcoin near peak prices, or took on high debt levels could face solvency pressure and be acquired or restructured^[1].

The third scenario leaves room for recovery, should Bitcoin reach new all-time highs – but only for firms that have preserved liquidity and did not issue excessive shares during the boom^[1].

XRP: Fear as a Contraindicator?

Meanwhile, XRP is showing extreme negative sentiment among investors. The cryptocurrency has fallen below $2.10, placing it more than 40 percent below its all-time high from July 2025^[2].

The so-called "Social Sentiment" metric for XRP has slipped into the fear zone. According to Santiment, XRP is currently experiencing as much Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (FUD) as it last saw in October^[2].

Market observers, however, do not necessarily interpret this as a bearish signal. Historical data reveals an interesting pattern: when sentiment was similarly negative on November 21, the XRP price rose approximately 22 percent in the three days that followed^[2].

The current market situation underscores the volatility and structural challenges in the cryptocurrency sector, both among innovative business models like Bitcoin treasury strategies and established tokens such as XRP.