Grayscale Predicts Bitcoin All-Time High in First Half of 2026 as Market Sentiment Hits Lows

Grayscale Eyes New Bitcoin Peak by Mid-2026

Crypto asset manager Grayscale has issued a bullish forecast for Bitcoin, predicting the cryptocurrency will reach a new all-time high within the first half of 2026 ^[1][6]. In its "2026 Digital Asset Outlook" report, the firm cites two primary drivers for this expected surge: "a growing macro demand for alternative value stores like Bitcoin" and "increased regulatory clarity" ^[1].

The prediction marks a significant vote of confidence in Bitcoin's trajectory despite current market turbulence. Grayscale also suggests that 2026 will mark "the end of the so-called four-year cycle" in Bitcoin, challenging the long-standing theory that crypto markets follow a recurring four-year pattern ^[1][6].

Institutional Adoption and Regulatory Shifts

Grayscale points to substantial institutional interest as a key factor, noting that since the launch of Bitcoin exchange-traded products in the US in January 2024, global crypto ETPs including ETFs have recorded net inflows of $87 billion ^[1].

The asset manager argues that improved regulatory conditions in the United States will facilitate continued institutional investment. "In 2026, Grayscale expects Congress to pass bipartisan crypto market structure legislation, which will likely cement blockchain-based finance in U.S. capital markets," the firm stated ^[6].

On the macro front, Grayscale warns that fiat currencies face "rising debasement risks due to rising public sector debt and its potential implications for inflation over time" ^[6]. The firm added that 2026 will see the 20-millionth Bitcoin mined, meaning 95 percent of all BTC will be in circulation ^[1].

Current Market Sentiment Remains Bearish

Despite Grayscale's optimistic long-term outlook, current market sentiment tells a different story. On prediction platform Polymarket, 40 percent of participants forecast Bitcoin will fall to $80,000, while 18 percent expect a further decline to $75,000 ^[3].

One deleted post on X warned: "Speculating on Bitcoin at current volatility levels is a dangerous game. A 40 percent probability of reaching $80,000 speaks more to desperation than strategy" ^[3]. However, another user countered: "It's not that bad of a correction. If anything, it's a great opportunity to enter" ^[3].

Whale Activity Shows Mixed Signals

Onchain data reveals contrasting behavior among different classes of Bitcoin holders. Bitcoin "sharks" – entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC – increased their collective holdings by 54,000 BTC over the past seven days, marking the fastest pace of accumulation since 2012 ^[4].

However, long-term holders have been reducing their positions. Entities that have held Bitcoin for at least 155 days reduced their holdings to 14.3 million BTC in December from 14.8 million BTC in mid-July, dropping their share of circulating supply to 71.92 percent, a level last seen in April ^[2].

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards noted that "while institutional buying on Coinbase has reached unprecedented levels (Z-score 15.7), it is being absorbed by 'OG' whales and long-term holders selling at rates not seen in years" ^[4].

Bitcoin Outperforms Altcoin Sectors

Despite retreating approximately 26 percent over the past three months to around $86,000, Bitcoin has outperformed most other cryptocurrency sectors ^[5]. Ether fell 36 percent to below $3,000, while AI tokens declined 48 percent, memecoins dropped 56 percent, and real-world asset tokens fell 46 percent over the same period ^[5].

Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the data indicates "capital inflows continue to favor Bitcoin, reflecting a strong investor preference for BTC's stability" ^[5]. He added that "this trend is likely driven by Bitcoin's established reputation and increasing institutional interest, which bolster its appeal as a safer haven in the volatile crypto landscape" ^[5].