Institutional Demand and Regulatory Clarity Could Drive Extended Bull Market Through 2026, Analysts Say

Macro Factors Point to Continued Bull Market

Demand for alternative stores of value and clearer regulations are driving what could become crypto's next bull market, according to Grayscale. Speaking on CNBC's "Crypto World" on Monday, Grayscale's head of research Zach Pandl identified macroeconomic pressure as the strongest driver, with increasing government debt, persistent fiscal deficits and concerns over fiat currency debasement pushing investors to look beyond traditional assets ^[1].

"There's a lot of things happening in crypto ... but the biggest asset in the market, Bitcoin, is driven because of demand for alternative stores of value because of debt and deficits and the risk of fiat currency debasement," Pandl said ^[1].

Pandl added that these macro imbalances are unlikely to fade in the near term, meaning the portfolio shifts should continue into 2026 ^[1].

Regulatory Progress Expected in 2026

The second major driver of the crypto bull market is regulation. Grayscale expects bipartisan progress on a US crypto market structure bill in early 2026, following delays caused by political gridlock and a government shutdown ^[1]. While the legislation did not pass in 2025, Pandl said momentum has returned, with lawmakers on both sides showing interest in establishing clearer federal rules for digital assets ^[1].

Pandl suggested that regulatory clarity may allow startups, mature firms and even Fortune 500 companies to issue tokens as part of their capital structure, alongside stocks and bonds. He said token issuance may become a standard financing option once the legal status of digital assets is firmly established ^[1].

Institutional Adoption on the Horizon

Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi said that a major Big Tech company is likely to integrate a crypto wallet in 2026, potentially onboarding billions of users. He speculated that companies including Google, Meta, or Apple could launch or acquire a wallet ^[1].

Debate Over Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle

Analysts are split on whether Bitcoin's typical four-year cycle has ended in 2025, with institutional ETFs and regulatory shifts cited as key factors ^[3]. The four-year cycle is tied to Bitcoin halving events, which cut miner rewards in half, reducing the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation ^[3].

Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the halving cycle appeared to start to break down in 2025, driven by sustained institutional demand through ETFs and corporate treasuries that "lessened the expected post-peak crash and reduced volatility compared to prior cycles" ^[3]. "While the bull market may face near-term consolidation amid macroeconomic pressures, we anticipate it will extend into 2026 with support from ongoing structural inflows and evolving market dynamics," Ruck said ^[3].

In early December, Grayscale predicted that Bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, citing growing macro demand due to currency debasement and a supportive regulatory environment in the US ^[3]. "We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called 'four-year cycle,' or the theory that crypto market direction follows a recurring four-year pattern," Grayscale stated ^[3].

Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, said in early December that the cycle theory was "no longer valid" and halved the bank's prediction, now saying that Bitcoin will hit $150,000 by the end of 2026 ^[3].

Other crypto executives, including Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, CEO Hunter Horsley and Real Vision founder Raoul Pal, all think that the four-year cycle is a thing of the past ^[3].

Counterarguments Remain

However, several analysts think the cycle is still in play and crypto has already entered a bear market. "Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy," 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen told Cointelegraph earlier in December ^[3].

Analyst "Rekt Capital" has maintained that the four-year cycle is still intact, but said on December 20 that "If BTC's 4-year cycle is 'broken,' it's probably just leveling up" ^[3].