Mixed Market Outlook: Optimism for 2026 Meets Whale Sell-Offs and Bearish Forecasts

Optimistic Outlook for 2026 Despite Uncertainties

The crypto market looks toward 2026 with mixed emotions. While regulatory progress and an expected loose monetary policy inspire hope, massive whale sell-offs and pessimistic analyst voices are causing uncertainty.

A decisive factor for future development could be the so-called Clarity Act, whose passage has been delayed by the extended government shutdown ^[1]. The law is intended to create clearer rules and define which regulatory authorities (SEC and CFTC) are responsible for various crypto assets—depending on whether they are classified as securities or commodities ^[1]. The hope is that more crypto companies that have relocated abroad will move their headquarters back to the United States ^[1].

In parallel, a shift by the Federal Reserve toward a policy of loose money is expected. The Fed Chair selection by President Trump, scheduled for early 2026, could bring interest rate cuts of up to 100 basis points ^[1]. According to Salmond, crypto investors view Fed rate cuts as bullish for risk assets, although there is a "Tale of Two Cities" scenario in which the data collides with the most optimistic perspectives ^[1].

Ethereum Under Massive Selling Pressure

The second-largest cryptocurrency is currently under heavy pressure. Ethereum is trading at $3,050—a decline of approximately 37 percent from its annual high ^[2]. Ethereum whales have sold ETH worth $360 million in the past week alone ^[2]. Since the rise in early October, their total holdings have fallen from more than 5.73 million ETH to 5.61 million ^[2].

At the same time, Ethereum Spot ETFs suffered net outflows of $660 million within five trading days ^[2]. The iShares ETH ETF was particularly hard hit, losing $558 million alone ^[2].

Arthur Hayes Sells Ethereum Holdings

One of the most prominent sellers is BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. Between December 19 and 20, the crypto billionaire transferred more than 1,100 ETH worth $3.3 million to various crypto exchanges, according to Lookonchain ^[2]. As recently as August, he had predicted that the Ether price would rise to $10,000 to $20,000 in this cycle and purchased an additional 1,500 ETH ^[2].

In an X post, Hayes now explains: "We are selling our ETH holdings and investing in high-quality DeFi names that we believe will outperform when fiat liquidity improves" ^[2]. According to on-chain data, the most aggressive accumulation occurred with Ethena (ENA). On December 20, Hayes purchased an additional 1.22 million ENA tokens worth approximately $257,500 ^[2]. In addition to Ethena, Hayes is also buying Pendle (PENDLE) and ether.fi (ETHFI) ^[2]. However, this cannot be characterized as a panic exit from Ethereum—Hayes still holds 3,842 ETH worth $11.7 million ^[2].

Bloomberg Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Crash to $10,000

Mike McGlone of Bloomberg has issued a grim forecast: He expects Bitcoin to fall back to $10,000, which would represent a price collapse of nearly 90 percent from current levels ^[3]. McGlone argues that "much of what the market was looking forward to has occurred": ETFs, recognition of Bitcoin's benefits by leading U.S. politicians, and broader mainstream acceptance ^[3].

In an interview, McGlone summarized his forecast: "I think it's going to $10,000. There are critical reasons for this. First: The world has changed. The difference today is that buying crypto—of any kind—is no longer independent of most governments" ^[3]. He also points out that the market is now dependent on governments and that one is also supporting the Trump family and Trump administration officials, all of whom are invested in this space ^[3].

Critical Voices on McGlone's Forecast

However, McGlone's track record is mixed. In early January 2024, when Bitcoin stood at $45,000, he assumed that gold would outperform BTC that year ^[3]. Bitcoin ultimately ended the year with a price gain of 120 percent, while gold rose "only" 27 percent ^[3]. Also on November 9, 2022, when BTC fell to $15,500 during the FTX collapse, he shared the assessment that the price could also reach $10,000—but that was precisely when the recovery began ^[3].