Strategy's Slowing Bitcoin Purchases Signal Shifting Market Dynamics as US Demand Weakens

Strategy's Cooling Appetite Reflects Broader Market Weakness

Michael Saylor's Strategy has purchased another 2,932 BTC for $264 million, but the notably smaller size of this acquisition compared to earlier January buys reveals more than just routine dollar-cost averaging. This purchase, executed at an average price of $90,061 per coin as Bitcoin tumbled below $87,000, represents the company's third consecutive weekly buy this month—yet it's the smallest of the three, coming in at less than one-eighth the size of last week's 22,305 BTC purchase ^[1][3]. The diminishing purchase sizes coincide with deteriorating market conditions, including the Coinbase Premium hitting 12-month lows and over $1.72 billion in outflows from US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in just five days ^[2]. Together, these data points paint a picture of a market facing significant headwinds, where even the world's most prominent corporate Bitcoin buyer appears to be proceeding with increased caution.

The Facts

Strategy disclosed its latest Bitcoin acquisition through a US Securities and Exchange Commission filing on Monday, confirming the purchase of 2,932 BTC between January 20-25 for approximately $264.1 million at an average price of $90,061 per coin ^[1][3]. This brings the company's total holdings to 712,647 BTC, representing roughly 3.4% of Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply, purchased for an aggregate $54.19 billion at an average cost basis of $76,037 per bitcoin ^[1][3].

The company funded this acquisition primarily through its at-the-market (ATM) offering program, selling approximately 1.57 million shares of its Class A common stock (MSTR) for $257 million in net proceeds, plus an additional 70,201 shares of Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock (STRC) generating $7 million ^[1][3]. Strategy still maintains substantial capacity for future capital raises, with approximately $8.17 billion available under its common stock ATM program and multiple preferred stock programs collectively worth tens of billions in potential future issuance ^[3].

While Strategy's January purchases have been aggressive overall—totaling approximately 40,100 BTC this month and exceeding the combined total from August through December 2024—the sequential decline in purchase sizes is notable ^[1]. The company acquired 13,627 BTC in the first week of January, followed by 22,305 BTC the following week, before dropping to just 2,932 BTC in the most recent purchase ^[1].

This buying pattern emerges against a backdrop of deteriorating market conditions. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between BTC on Coinbase versus Binance, has remained negative for more than five weeks and recently hit -0.17, its lowest level in 12 months ^[2]. "The Coinbase Premium continues to drop sharply and widen, indicating significantly stronger BTC selling pressure on Coinbase compared to other exchanges," derivatives data provider CoinGlass stated ^[2]. CryptoQuant analyst TeddyVision noted the premium is "firmly below zero, showing continued sell pressure from U.S. spot flows" and warned that "until the premium stabilizes and turns positive, the upside remains fragile" ^[2].

Veteran trader Peter Brandt identified a bearish technical pattern, stating "Yet another sell signal in Bitcoin as a bear channel has been completed" ^[2]. His analysis suggests a measured downside target of $66,800—representing a potential 22% decline from current levels—unless Bitcoin reclaims $93,000 as support ^[2]. At the time of the reports, Strategy's MSTR shares were trading around $163, down 12% from January highs of $185 ^[1].

Analysis & Context

Strategy's evolving purchasing behavior reveals a critical shift in market dynamics that extends far beyond one company's treasury operations. The dramatic deceleration from 22,305 BTC to 2,932 BTC in consecutive weeks—despite Bitcoin's price decline theoretically offering better value—suggests either capital constraints, strategic repositioning, or a more cautious assessment of near-term market conditions. Given that Strategy maintains over $8 billion in available ATM capacity, the issue likely isn't access to capital but rather a calculated response to deteriorating market sentiment.

The simultaneous weakening of the Coinbase Premium is particularly significant. Historically, sustained negative Coinbase Premium readings have preceded meaningful price corrections. When the index remained predominantly negative between December 2024 and early January 2025, Bitcoin experienced an 18% decline ^[2]. A similar pattern between February and April 2025 preceded a 32% drawdown from Bitcoin's $109,000 all-time high to $74,500 ^[2]. The current five-week stretch of negative premium readings, combined with massive ETF outflows exceeding $1.7 billion, indicates that US institutional and retail demand—which powered Bitcoin's ascent to six figures—has materially weakened.

Strategy's position becomes more complex when considering its unrealized gains of approximately $8.3 billion on its Bitcoin holdings ^[3]. While impressive, these paper profits face two-sided pressure: declining Bitcoin prices erode the gains themselves, while falling MSTR share prices (down 12% from January highs) make future equity-funded purchases more dilutive to existing shareholders. The company's recent relief from potential MSCI index exclusion removes one source of forced selling pressure ^[3], but cannot address the fundamental challenge of weakening demand from the US market that has historically driven Bitcoin's price discovery.

The technical setup identified by veteran trader Peter Brandt, targeting $66,800, aligns with previous cycle highs from 2021 and 2024, suggesting a potential test of major support zones. If this scenario materializes, Strategy would face a critical decision point: accelerate purchases at significantly lower prices despite increased shareholder dilution concerns, or reduce buying activity precisely when its dollar-cost averaging strategy should theoretically be most effective.

Key Takeaways

• Strategy's Bitcoin purchase size dropped dramatically from 22,305 BTC to 2,932 BTC in consecutive weeks despite falling prices, suggesting increased caution or capital constraints rather than aggressive accumulation during weakness

• The Coinbase Premium hitting 12-month lows and remaining negative for five consecutive weeks signals sustained US selling pressure, historically a precursor to meaningful Bitcoin price corrections of 18-32%

• Combined outflows exceeding $3.4 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs and crypto investment products over the past week indicate deteriorating institutional demand, removing a key pillar of support for Bitcoin's price

• Strategy now controls 3.4% of Bitcoin's total supply with $8.3 billion in unrealized gains, but faces mounting pressure from both declining Bitcoin prices and falling MSTR share prices that make future purchases more dilutive

• Technical analysis suggests Bitcoin could test the $66,800-$80,000 support zone—a potential 22% decline—unless price reclaims $93,000, creating a critical juncture for Strategy's ongoing accumulation strategy