US Crypto Clarity Act Already Priced In, Won't Drive Major Bitcoin Rally, Say Industry Executives

Regulatory Clarity Expected to Have Limited Immediate Impact

The US Clarity Act, widely anticipated legislation aimed at establishing regulatory clarity for cryptocurrency assets, is unlikely to produce significant immediate price movements for Bitcoin, according to industry executives who believe the market has already accounted for its potential passage.

"The Clarity Act would be positive because it would greatly clarify the regulatory structure for crypto assets," said industry executive Brandt ^[1]. However, Brandt emphasized that while the legislation represents a significant step forward for the crypto industry, it is unlikely to be "world-shaking" for Bitcoin's price and won't serve as a catalyst to drive Bitcoin back to its all-time high of $125,100 ^[1].

Market Already Pricing In Legislative Changes

John Glover, chief investment officer at Ledn, echoed similar sentiments, stating that the potential passing of the Clarity Act has already "been priced into the market" ^[1]. "I don't expect this event to have a significant impact on the markets on day 1," Glover told Cointelegraph, suggesting that any benefits to price action are likely to be more delayed ^[1].

Despite the muted short-term expectations, Glover maintained a positive long-term outlook. "It is another step toward broad-based acceptance of Bitcoin and ETH as investable assets, so over time I still expect the price trajectory to be up and to the right over time," he said ^[1].

Bitcoin Price Projections Remain Conservative

Brandt offered a notably bearish medium-term projection for Bitcoin, stating, "I believe the charts suggest that Bitcoin could trade down to the $60k level, likely in Q3 of 2026" ^[1]. This forecast would represent a 31% drop from Bitcoin's price at the time of publication of $88,000 ^[1].

Coinbase Challenges State Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets

In separate regulatory developments, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has filed lawsuits against three states over their oversight of prediction markets, arguing that Congress has already designated the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as the sole regulator for such platforms ^[2].

The prediction markets space has experienced significant growth this year, with users rushing to bet on outcomes of real-world events spanning politics, sports, and more ^[2]. Polymarket and Kalshi have emerged as the most popular platforms in this market, with both seeing record trading volumes according to data from Token Terminal ^[2].

However, this growth has attracted pushback from state authorities. Several states have taken enforcement action against prediction market operators, contending that event-based contracts constitute illegal gambling unless licensed under state law ^[2]. Regulators have specifically argued that prediction markets fall outside the CFTC's jurisdiction when they relate to sports ^[2].

Mixed Legal Results for Prediction Market Operators

Kalshi has been employing similar legal arguments to those presented by Coinbase for nearly a year, achieving mixed results across multiple jurisdictions ^[2]. The platform has either sued or been sued in at least six states regarding whether its sports and event markets can be considered unlicensed gambling or CFTC-regulated derivatives ^[2].

In Nevada and Maryland, judges have ruled that Kalshi is subject to state gaming oversight despite its CFTC regulation ^[2]. Meanwhile, federal courts in New Jersey and Connecticut have granted the company temporary protection from enforcement while broader injunctions are being considered ^[2]. Massachusetts has sued to block Kalshi's sports products, with an injunction decision not expected until early 2026 ^[2].